From Zillow: Case-Shiller Expected to Continue Recent Leveling-Off Trend in May
The April S&P/Case-Shiller (SPCS) data published [2 weeks ago] showed home prices continuing to rise slightly less than 5 percent annually for both the 10- and 20-city indices, and slightly more than 4 percent annually for the national index. April marks the eighth consecutive month in which the national home price index has appreciated at a less than 5 percent annual appreciation rate (seasonally adjusted).So the year-over-year change in for May Case-Shiller National index will be about the same as in the April report.
In April, the 10-city index appreciated at an annual rate of 4.6 percent, compared to 4.9 percent for the 20-City Index (SA). The non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) 10-City Index was up 1 percent month-over-month, while the 20-City index rose 1.1 percent (NSA) from March to April. We expect the change from April to May to show increases of more than 1 percent (NSA) for both the 10- and 20-city indices.
All Case-Shiller forecasts are shown in the table below. ... Officially, the SPCS Composite Home Price Indices for May will not be released until Tuesday, July 28.
| Zillow Case-Shiller Forecast | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Case-Shiller Composite 10 |
Case-Shiller Composite 20 |
Case-Shiller National |
||||
| NSA | SA | NSA | SA | NSA | SA | |
| April Actual YoY |
4.6% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 4.2% |
| May Forecast YoY |
4.7% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% |
| May Forecast MoM |
1.1% | 0.2% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
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