Across a largely pacified international
landscape, nuclear proliferation remains one of the few issues capable
of igniting military conflagration. It was yellowcake uranium that
headlined Colin Powell’s presentation to the UN of the casus belli
against Iraq in February 2003. Clinton signalled a war alert over North
Korea’s research reactor in 1994, while Bush followed suit in lower key
in 2002. Embryonic nuclear facilities in Iraq and Syria have been bombed
by the IDF. Iran’s uranium-enrichment programme incurs threats and
sanctions from Congress and the Security Council, and more
sabre-rattling from Israel. American officials have begun to speak of a
zero-enrichment option for selected states.
The
normative legal framework at stake in these conflicts is the 1968
Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. A product of
détente-era American–Soviet diplomacy, famously privileging the rights
of the established nuclear powers over all newcomers, the NPT has been
given a new lease of life since the end of the Cold War; its abrogation
of national sovereignties chiming well with current superpower needs.
Yet with scant exception, states facing UN-sanctioned coercion for
breaching their obligations under the Treaty—Iran, for instance—still
cling to it, rather than exercise their right to withdraw; while the
Bush Administration has regularly been accused of flouting its
provisions. For mainstream and much liberal-left opinion, the NPT
betokens a moral pledge to a future world without weapons, as much as a
shield against the calamity of nuclear war. Yet the Treaty itself has
received little attention since its unconditional extension in 1995.
With this number, New Left Review begins a discussion on the political
meaning of the NPT, the evolution of its institutional apparatus, the
International Atomic Energy Agency, and broader questions of nuclear
non-proliferation. In his opening contribution Norman Dombey, Emeritus
Professor of Theoretical Physics at Sussex, surveys the aims,
limitations and achievements of the Treaty, while Peter Gowan, author of
The Global Gamble, argues that attempts by the Bush
Administration to bypass the NPT have ended in failure. The editors hope
to return to this theme in future issues.
NORMAN DOMBEY
THE NUCLEAR NON-PROLIFERATION TREATY
Aims, Limitations and Achievements
In March 1967 while the Nuclear Non-Proliferation
Treaty was in its final stages of negotiation, a conference was held at
the University of Notre Dame in Indiana at which strategists, diplomats
and academics from the us and Canada
presented their views of what the Treaty was about. The Soviet and
Polish embassies in Washington also sent representatives, while various
European members of nato sent written
statements outlining their position. The draft then under discussion was
essentially that signed the following year, but there are differences.
The proceedings of the Conference thus provide a useful guide to the npt’s aims, its limitations and the difficult issues at stake when it was signed. [1] The final draft was agreed by the Eighteen Nation Committee on Disarmament (endc) and the un General Assembly in June 1968, ten months after the ussr and us had presented identical versions to the endc. It was opened for signature on July 1, 1968 and came into force on March 5, 1970. No amendment has been made to it, so the npt signed in 1968 is the same one in force today and invoked every time the ‘Western community’ (i.e. the current us administration) worries that ‘rogue’ state X or Y may have a nuclear-weapon programme.
The
French Embassy in Washington—De Gaulle was President at the time—sent a
note to the Notre Dame Conference explaining the Elysée’s position on
the npt: ‘France is against
proliferation. But she considers that the draft treaty, as it currently
stands, settles nothing. It does not represent any progress towards
disarmament. It sanctions the supremacy of some countries over the rest
of the non-nuclear nations.’ The letter goes on to quote Couve de
Murville, the French Foreign Minister:
Non-dissemination [the initial and more specific word for preventing the spread of nuclear weapons] is, assuredly, a problem. There is no advantage, there would even be great danger, in having more and more countries manufacture nuclear weapons. But one thing is much more important—those who possess nuclear weapons should not manufacture more but destroy the ones they have. Yet what is being proposed seems to us to arrive at the opposite result: preventing those who do not have and who, for the most part, cannot have nuclear weapons, from manufacturing them. But this in no way prevents those [possessing] such weapons from continuing to manufacture them and from maintaining their stockpiles. Consequently, this is not disarmament, and we think that we should not, by taking paths of this kind, lead the world [to] believe there is disarmament where, in fact, there is only a strengthening of the monopolies of the great powers.
As was so often the case, De Gaulle’s
view was far-sighted. France, however, did eventually ratify the Treaty,
as did China, which had originally agreed with France. The purpose of
this article is to explain what the npt
forbids and what it does not; the obligations assumed by its parties;
its successes and failures; and whether it can be maintained. I start
from the premise, shared by France, the us
and Britain, that a world in which most countries possessed nuclear
weapons would be less secure than one in which only a few do. Not
everyone agrees: Kenneth Waltz argued that the increased
responsibilities the weapons bring would reduce the likelihood of wars
between nuclear powers. [2]
The majority view, with which I agree, is that whilst this may be the
case, a war involving nuclear weapons would be so horrific that the
eventual elimination of these weapons by all states should be the goal;
the npt together with other measures such
as the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty—signed in 1996 but still not in
force—are necessary steps towards that end. This discussion of the npt
does not aim to be complete. Mason Willrich and especially Mohamed
Shaker have given full accounts of the negotiations leading to the
Treaty and its interpretation. [3]
I try to deal with those subjects still relevant to the present
international situation, but leave aside some, such as the Cold War
security guarantees, which have little meaning now.
The final report of the Notre Dame Conference summarized the npt’s expected aims:
A treaty should be drawn up which (1) binds the military nuclear powers not to transfer nuclear weapons to other states, (2) commits the other states not to build or acquire nuclear weapons, (3) assures all signatory nations of the opportunity to develop and share in the benefit of nuclear energy for peaceful purposes, and (4) contains an agreement on an international inspection system. It should be drafted in such a way as to attract the early adherence of the nuclear powers and to facilitate other steps towards arms control and disarmament.
These aims were in accordance with the ‘Irish Resolution’ 1576, passed unanimously by the un
General Assembly in December 1961, entitled ‘Prevention of the Wider
Dissemination of Nuclear Weapons’. This envisaged an international
agreement under which weapon states pledged not to transfer control of
their nuclear arms or information necessary for their manufacture to
non-weapon states, while states without nuclear weapons agreed not to
acquire them.
Non-aligned states were not
represented at Notre Dame. Nevertheless the Conference report gives an
accurate summary of the Treaty’s aims since the us and ussr were the co-chairs of the endc, set up by Resolution 1722 of the un
General Assembly with a remit to negotiate ‘general and complete
disarmament under effective international control’, including
negotiations on the non-dissemination treaty. Thus the Soviet–us
version with some amendments became the eventual Treaty. Considered as a
deal made between the nuclear-weapon states (or at least the us, ussr and uk, since France and China took no part in the negotiations) and the non-weapon states, the npt
was a framework in which non-weapon states could develop nuclear-power
programmes under an international inspection system in return for
relinquishing their right to develop nuclear weapons.
Andrzej
Konopacki, the Polish representative, realized that many non-weapon
states would not consider this an equitable deal. ‘How would the balance
of mutual responsibilities and obligations [between weapon states and
non-weapon states] be reached—or to put it more bluntly: what would the
non-nuclear countries receive in return for their renunciation of
acquiring nuclear weapons?’ he asked rhetorically—replying to his own
question that the security of all states would be improved if nuclear
proliferation was avoided. But he added:
The treaty we are seeking should not provide for unilateral obligations. It should not enjoin nuclear abstinence to one group of states, while leaving complete freedom of action to the other. It should place restrictions, though different in character, on all. We cannot but recognize that the purpose of a non-proliferation treaty is limited. It is not so much intended to improve the present situation as to prevent it from getting worse. [4]
Hence the logic of the French criticism
that ‘this is not disarmament’. In the draft, as in the final Treaty,
non-weapon states would renounce their right to manufacture or acquire
nuclear weapons and accept international inspection of any civil nuclear
facilities, while weapon states would simply give up their right to
transfer weapons to other states or help non-weapon states acquire them.
Thus the obligations between the two are not balanced. Furthermore, the
proposed international inspection system only bound non-weapon states:
weapon states could continue to use their nuclear facilities—power
reactors, uranium enrichment plants, reprocessing plants—without
external interference.
U Maung Maung of Burma was among the representatives of non-aligned states on the endc to take up this theme in discussions of the us–ussr joint draft. He argued that since the nuclear-weapon powers themselves had repeatedly acknowledged that the npt
was not an end in itself but merely a step towards total nuclear
disarmament, it should be incumbent on them to move towards the
progressive liquidation of their nuclear-weapon status. Nevertheless he
understood that ‘security needs’ would impose limitations on the will of
the signatory nuclear-weapon powers to undertake disarmament
obligations. He proposed therefore that
an article should be formulated, in clear-cut and precise terms, under which the nuclear-weapon powers would assume a definite obligation to take tangible steps towards nuclear disarmament. Those steps should be explicitly defined. One would envisage them to include the concluding of a comprehensive test-ban treaty . . . an agreement on the cut-off of all production of fissile materials for weapon purposes and on their diversion to peaceful use; a halt to production of nuclear weapons themselves; a verified freeze of the production of nuclear delivery vehicles; and progressive reduction and final destruction of all stockpiles of nuclear weapons and carriers. [5]
Swedish representative Alva Myrdal also emphasized the demand formulated by the non-aligned members of the endc
throughout the discussion that a treaty must contain an ‘acceptable
balance of mutual responsibilities and obligations of the nuclear and
the non-nuclear powers’. [6]
It
was not to be. No major revisions were made to balance obligations more
equitably. Various non-binding commitments were made by the weapon
states to meet these demands but they, or at least the Soviet Union and
the United States, insisted that consideration of concrete measures of
disarmament would prevent agreement on the Treaty, and had to be pursued
after its ratification; weapon states could not be bound to a specific
measure of disarmament before negotiating the details. Indeed, in the
Senate hearings on the npt, chairman of the us
Joint Chiefs of Staff General Wheeler was asked whether ‘all that the
military, all that the nuclear powers are asked to do is not to pass the
control of the weapons to other countries?’ Wheeler responded ‘That is
correct, sir’. [7]
The only revision that could be claimed to strengthen the disarmament
obligations of the weapon states was that they were moved from the
Preamble to a new Article vi. Thus all parties to the npt
agreed to negotiate in good faith further measures in three areas:
nuclear arms control, nuclear disarmament and general disarmament.
West Germany, although not represented on the endc,
was dissatisfied on the grounds that an inspection regime applying only
to non-weapon states would give an unfair commercial advantage to the
weapon states in the provision of nuclear power. In response the us and uk, followed later by the ussr, offered their civil nuclear facilities to the inspection body, the International Atomic Energy Agency. Of course, the iaea, with its limited budget, did not consider such voluntary measures a priority.
Nevertheless, the npt
has been surprisingly successful since it came into force in 1970. Many
forecasts predicted a substantial increase in the number of weapon
states, since more countries were using nuclear power. Kennedy estimated
that over 20 states would have nuclear weapons by the 1970s. A London Times leader of 1983 predicted that 40 countries would be capable of building weapons by 1990. [8]
Currently 56 states have civil nuclear reactors but only Israel, India,
Pakistan and the five permanent members of the Security Council possess
nuclear weapons. North Korea has tested a weapon but is now expected to
relinquish it in return for aid and security, which was always its
intention; South Africa possessed weapons in the apartheid era but
allowed them to be dismantled afterwards; Iran terminated its weapon
programme in 2003. [9]
These states join Argentina, Australia, Brazil, South Korea, Sweden and
Switzerland, who once had plans for weapon programmes, but concluded
they were detrimental to their security. Ukraine and Kazakhstan, both of
which had advanced nuclear programmes, agreed to join the npt as non-weapon states after the break-up of the Soviet Union.
Israel
and India—like South Africa—already had advanced weapon programmes in
the early 1970s. Hence the number of states possessing nuclear arms has
increased by just one in over thirty years. During this period, several
nuclear-weapon reduction treaties have been signed. Perhaps the most
important step was the agreement on a Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty in
1996: it is now almost impossible for any state to test a weapon without
detection. Unfortunately the ctbt is not yet in force.
In what follows I analyse the various Articles of the npt. First, the central obligations of Articles i and ii on non-dissemination; second, the civil nuclear energy obligations of Articles iii and iv. The third section is on disarmament, in particular Article vi,
which although peripheral to the Treaty’s core objectives, is now the
part most likely to be quoted (usually incorrectly) by journalists,
peace activists and even eminent lawyers. The fourth focuses on the
remaining articles, dealing with peaceful nuclear explosions, the
duration and extension of the Treaty and other legal necessities. The
conclusion addresses the present and reviews current problems.
i. non-dissemination: article i
It is instructive to compare the text of Article i submitted to the endc by the us in March 1966 with the final version of the Treaty.
The earlier draft read:
Each of the nuclear-weapon States party to this treaty undertakes:
1. Not to transfer nuclear weapons into the national control of any non-nuclear-weapon State, or into the control of any association of non-nuclear-weapon States.
2. Not to provide to any non-nuclear-weapon State or association of such States—(a) assistance in the manufacture of nuclear weapons, in the preparation for such manufacture, or in the testing of nuclear weapons, or (b) encouragement or inducement to manufacture or otherwise acquire its own nuclear weapons.
3. Not to take any other action which would cause an increase in the total number of States and associations of States having control of nuclear weapons.
4. Not to take any of the actions prohibited in the preceding paragraphs of this Article directly, or indirectly through third states or associations of States, or through units of armed forces or military personnel of any State, even if such units or personnel are under the command of a military alliance. [10]
The basic premise on which the npt—like
all the arms-control treaties of that generation—was interpreted was
that ‘the Treaty deals with what is prohibited, not with what is
permitted’. [11]
The prime example of this principle is in the Outer Space Treaty of
1967 which banned nuclear and other weapons of mass destruction in
space, thereby legitimizing reconnaissance satellites (not explicitly
prohibited by the treaty), and thus achieving a strategic goal of the us after the Soviet Union shot down a U-2 reconnaissance plane over the Urals in 1960.
The March 1966 us draft of the npt
does not allow transfer or control of nuclear weapons to non-weapon
states, nor to an association of non-weapon states. That wording is
deliberate: a multinational nato force then under discussion was aiming to deploy nuclear-armed Polaris missiles. nato was not an association of non-weapon states, since France, the us and Britain were members; such deployments therefore would not contravene the treaty.
The Soviet Union was never going to agree to this formulation: it saw the npt as a means to prevent the frg from acquiring nuclear capability, and West Germany was the main backer of the multinational force. The version of Article i agreed by the us and ussr
in August 1967 is that appearing in the final Treaty, prohibiting
transfer of nuclear weapons directly or indirectly ‘to any recipient
whatsoever’. By this time plans for the multinational nato force had been scrapped. Yet the ussr made no objection to the us interpretation that allowed West German, Turkish, Belgian, Dutch, Italian and British air forces to be equipped with us nuclear weapons: ownership and control of those weapons was not transferred and nato’s supreme commander in Europe was always a us General who took instructions from the Pentagon.
The second clause of Article i
prohibits weapon states from assisting, encouraging or inducing any
non-weapon State ‘to manufacture or otherwise acquire nuclear weapons or
other nuclear explosive devices, or control over such weapons or
explosive devices’. This was the most important clause for Britain,
which in 1961 had persuaded the us to sell it Polaris missiles. Missiles are delivery systems, not weapons, but the uk needed the design of the warhead. Since the us–uk agreement on cooperation on nuclear energy for military purposes in 1958, the us had supplied Britain with weapon designs which the uk built ‘under licence’ at Aldermaston. Again this clause is worded to allow this arrangement to continue. [12]
A deeper question is whether the transfer of nuclear-weapon designs is permitted by the first clause of Article i, which prohibits transfer ‘directly or indirectly’ of the weapons. In 1958 there was a discussion in the us Joint Committee on Atomic Energy regarding the proposed exchange between the us and uk
of weapon designs, non-nuclear components of nuclear weapons, fissile
material and tritium. Representative Holifield stated to Commission
Chairman Strauss: ‘When you say we are not furnishing weapons you are
technically correct of course. But the end effect of the whole bill is
to furnish the materials, the design and the information with which to
construct the weapon. So the end result is a weapon.’ [13] When I wrote in 1984 that this looked like an indirect transfer of a us weapon to the uk, banned by Article i,
the Foreign Office responded that the negotiating history of the Treaty
showed that the meaning of indirect is ‘via third parties’, as in the
March 1966 draft tabled by the us. That
view may be arguable; but the riposte must be that if the drafters of
the Treaty had intended ‘indirectly’ to mean via third parties they
would have said so. The us position was
explained by Gerard Smith, Director of the Arms Control and Disarmament
Agency: ‘the words “directly or indirectly” were used, as in many us
laws, to prevent evasions of the prohibitions of the Treaty by indirect
means, such as a transfer of a nuclear weapon through an intermediary
which was not party to the Treaty’. [14]
Transfer of the weapon design, components and materials, when supply of
the weapon itself was prohibited, thus seems to me an ‘indirect’
provision of the weapon, seeking to evade a prohibition of the Treaty. [15]
The 1958 Mutual Defence Agreement was drawn up long before the npt, of course. But the situation has not changed. The Trident missile is supplied to the uk under an extension to the Polaris agreement. The mda has been extended many times and is still in force. The us W-76 warhead carried by the older Trident missiles of the us
fleet is also used on the British Trident missiles, albeit now
manufactured at Aldermaston and Burghfield. At the very least then, the us–uk sharing of weapon designs raises serious questions about the compliance of both states to the Treaty. But the npt,
unlike later arms-control treaties, contains no mechanism for resolving
disputes or interpretations of the text. If Iran, or another non-weapon
state, is thought to have violated the safeguard provisions of Article iii, the iaea can report this to the un Security Council. If the us, uk or another weapon state is thought to have violated Article i, iv or vi, the iaea has no role.
ii. inspections and safeguards: articles iii and iv
The
field of international safeguards is now enormously complex, and of no
great interest except to specialists. But it is basic to the npt and the non-proliferation regime, as it is called, which the Treaty established. The iaea inspection system is often in the news, with claims that Iraq, Iran, Libya, Syria or whoever has been in breach of its npt safeguards obligations; rarely does one read allegations about breaches of npt obligations by the us, uk or China.
Article iii, dealing with inspection of nuclear facilities in the non-weapon states by the iaea, took time to negotiate; it was left blank in the 1967 joint us–ussr draft. Eventually it was agreed that each non-weapon state would conclude a safeguards agreement with the iaea
that would allow the Agency to verify that there had been no ‘diversion
of nuclear energy from peaceful uses to nuclear weapons or other
nuclear explosive devices’. Unlike earlier iaea agreements, concluded after the Agency was established in 1957, those under the npt
apply to all peaceful nuclear activities in non-weapon states, not just
designated facilities. A local bureaucracy is set up whereby the state
reports all facilities containing nuclear material, and arrangements are
made for determining the quantity of fissionable material going through
them; each facility keeps ‘nuclear material’ accounts, as well as
financial ones. This is not necessarily to the commercial disadvantage
of non-weapon states: eu members have their own Euratom safeguards and nuclear-accounting systems, as do the us and Russia.
The purpose of all the different iaea
safeguarding systems is the ‘timely detection of diversion of
significant quantities of nuclear material from peaceful nuclear
activities’ to other unknown activities and the ‘deterrence of such
diversions by the risk of early detection’. [16]
Any state subject to a safeguards agreement is obliged to give design
details of any facility in which nuclear material is to be used, at a
set time before the material arrives, to allow appropriate monitoring
equipment to be set up. For example, Iran’s safeguards agreement
specifies a 180-day notification period. In addition to acting as
nuclear accountant, the iaea installs
surveillance equipment to monitor movements of nuclear material. It also
applies containment measures, putting locks and seals on nuclear
containers or storage areas, to prevent access without the iaea’s knowledge. Nevertheless, the safeguards system for npt-signatory
non-weapon states allows any civil nuclear activity, provided it is
subject to safeguards. Significantly, there is no prohibition on uranium
enrichment or plutonium reprocessing, as long as they are under iaea
safeguards. As a legal adviser to the British Foreign Office has
pointed out: ‘safeguards are designed to detect diversion of materials
for military or unknown purposes. Nothing in the npt
or safeguards agreements legally prevents a state party to them from
acquiring nuclear-weapon capability, for example by enriching uranium to
high grades, reprocessing spent fuel and so on’. [17]
Furthermore, a non-weapon state can withdraw nuclear material from
safeguards for military purposes, provided it is used for submarine
reactors rather than weapons.
Since the npt
came into force in 1970 I know of only one diversion of safeguarded
material for weapon purposes: Iraq’s ‘crash programme’ of 1990–91. [18]
There have been various examples of a violation of the safeguards
regime, most recently by Iran. Yet it seems to me that the very
bureaucracy associated with reporting flows of fissionable material does
add confidence that no state subject to these safeguards is
manufacturing a weapon. For example: whatever its long-term intentions,
while Iran remains subject to the npt
safeguards system, although it is not impossible for it to be
manufacturing a weapon, it is improbable. Its future intentions will in
any event depend on its perceived security situation. A recently
declassified cia report from 1974 specified several states with the competence to develop weapons. [19] No non-weapon state party to the npt has done so—apart from North Korea, which withdrew from the Treaty before testing its weapon. The cia
report considered that Israel had nuclear weapons and India was well
advanced; only Pakistan has since developed them, and it is not a party
to the npt.
Article iv
addresses the development of nuclear energy for peaceful purposes. It
gives weapon states some obligations, as opposed to Article i
where there are only prohibitions. It declares that parties to the
Treaty ‘undertake to facilitate, and have the right to participate in,
the fullest possible exchange of equipment, materials and scientific and
technological information for the peaceful uses of nuclear energy.’
Hence Iran’s complaint for many years that the us has discriminated against it, and violated its obligations under Article iv. The us would no doubt respond that Iran has long had a weapon programme, in violation of Article ii, and therefore the us was entitled to discriminate against it.
iii. nuclear disarmament: articles vi and viii
The final version of Article vi,
committing states ‘to pursue negotiations in good faith on effective
measures relating to cessation of the nuclear arms race at an early date
and to nuclear disarmament’, did not appear in early drafts. The us–ussr
text relegated nuclear disarmament and arms control to the non-binding
Preamble, which included ‘Declaring their intention to achieve at the
earliest possible date the cessation of the nuclear arms race’, and:
Desiring to further the easing of international tension and the strengthening of trust between States in order to facilitate the cessation of manufacture of nuclear weapons, the liquidation of all their existing stockpiles, and the elimination from national arsenals of nuclear weapons and the means of their delivery pursuant to a treaty on general disarmament under strict and effective international control.
Most of that remains in the Preamble. The remit of the endc, after all, was to pursue nuclear and general disarmament—the Soviet aim—while the us
insisted this take place ‘under strict and effective control’. Much of
this is rhetoric rather than substance; but during the negotiations
various non-aligned members of the endc, with Romania, attempted to harden the disarmament elements by adding a new article to the body of the Treaty. Thus Article vi
first appeared on 18 January 1968, though Romania and Brazil continued
to insist weapon states take greater responsibility for arms control
than envisaged in that draft. But neither the us nor ussr were willing to move any further than the commitment to ‘negotiate in good faith’. Gerard Smith gave the us
view that the weapon states could not and would not be bound to
‘achieve any disarmament agreement, since it is impossible to predict
the exact nature and results of such negotiations’. So, notwithstanding
the frequent assertions that the weapon states are not fulfilling their
disarmament obligations, there are in fact no specific disarmament
requirements on weapon states in the npt.
How,
then, was such a lop-sided treaty concluded, whereby the weapon states
have effectively no obligations, while the non-weapon states agree to
far-reaching constraints on their activities? The former responded that
the 1963 Nuclear Test-Ban Treaty was also of general benefit but
impinged only on weapon states, since non-weapon states had no arms to
test. The npt was to be considered an
early step in a process of nuclear-arms control to be negotiated after
the Treaty came into force. As a mechanism for this, Article viii
stipulated that a review conference be held every five years, ‘with a
view to assuring that the purposes of the Preamble and the provisions of
the Treaty are being realized’. Among these purposes were ‘the
discontinuance of all test explosions of nuclear weapons . . . the
liquidation of all existing stockpiles, and the elimination from
national arsenals of nuclear weapons’. So the weapon states—or at least
those present; France and China signed much later—told the non-weapon
states to wait and see. The npt was but a
necessary step towards arms control. President Johnson duly announced
the start of strategic-arms limitation talks with the Soviet Union when
he recommended the npt to the us Senate; negotiations leading in turn to the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty and the salti and ii Treaties.
The text of the npt has not been amended since it entered into force in 1970; Article viii
assured that. Amendments could only take place after a special
conference of all parties, and subsequent majority approval from all 35
members of the iaea Board of Governors.
At present these include Algeria, Brazil, India, Iraq, Mexico, Nigeria,
Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, and the five weapon states. Thus
no amendment is ever likely to be agreed, which was the drafters’
intention.
How does the uk decision to renew Trident fit with the npt?
As we have seen, replacing the Vanguard submarines does not technically
involve nuclear weapons. Furthermore, in 1980 the Thatcher government
announced that it was not only building a new generation of Vanguard
submarines, but buying (or more accurately leasing) the Trident missile
from the us. This necessitated manufacturing a new warhead. Yet no npt party protested that this violated Article vi
even though, unlike the recent Trident decision, that of 1980 involved
replacing an existing nuclear weapon with a new one with enhanced
capabilities. But as noted, there are no specific disarmament
obligations in the npt, nuclear or otherwise. Furthermore, as Michael Quinlan has emphasized, Article vi is just as much about negotiating a treaty on general and complete disarmament as it is on nuclear disarmament. [20] So if the uk were to be in violation of Article vi for modernizing its nuclear deterrent, this would also apply each time it modernizes its tanks or its rifles.
Finally, a quick look at the remaining Articles. In Article v,
provision is made for non-weapon states to reap the ‘potential
benefits’ when weapon states carry out nuclear explosions for peaceful
purposes, such as excavating canals. Non-weapon states would pay a fee
that ‘will be as low as possible and exclude any charge for research and
development’. Early enthusiasm for this idea evaporated after India
tested a nuclear device in 1974 and called it a peaceful explosion.
Article vii allows states to form
regional groups to ‘assure the total absence of nuclear weapons in their
respective territories’—the Treaty of Tlatelolco is an example for
South and Central America. Article ix states that the Treaty will enter into force after 40 states ratify it, in addition to the depositary states of the us, ussr and uk.
It also defines a nuclear-weapon state as one which has tested a weapon
before 1 January 1967, which excludes India and Pakistan. So the only
nuclear-weapon states under the Treaty are now the five permanent
members of the un Security Council.
Article x
allows states to withdraw from the Treaty if ‘extraordinary events have
jeopardized’ their ‘supreme interests’. Three months’ notice must be
given, together with a statement detailing the events. It also specifies
that, twenty-five years after the Treaty had entered into force, a
conference would be convened to decide whether the Treaty should be
extended indefinitely, or for a further fixed period.
iv. 1995 extension conference and after
When the npt
reached the twenty-five-year mark, in 1995, the Extension Conference
was held in conjunction with the regular five-year review of the Treaty.
Nuclear disarmament seemed on track. The collapse of the Soviet Union
had much reduced the prospect of global nuclear war, whether by design
or accident. The Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty was almost ready for
signature. The us and post-Soviet Russia had agreed in the start talks to dispose of substantial numbers of weapons and their delivery vehicles. France had signed and ratified the npt in 1992, announcing simultaneously that it would need to carry out further tests in the Pacific to ensure that its force de dissuasion atomique
was reliable. China followed suit, with another test before joining up;
but both claimed these were their last. When it announced its decision
to join, France stated that this did not mark a change in policy, since
it had declared when the npt was opened for signature in 1968 that, although it would not sign, it would act in all respects as if it had done so.
The
main question at the Review Conference was whether to extend the Treaty
indefinitely, without conditions, or make extension conditional on
progress with nuclear disarmament. In retrospect, it is not clear what
reasons there could have been for an indefinite extension without
conditions, but that is what was decided. Ten non-weapon states argued
for a stronger review process and a twenty-five-year extension; but the
weapon states won the day, albeit with China hedging its bets. The ten
had argued that extension without conditions implied international
recognition for ‘the perpetuation of the existence of the nuclear-weapon
states’. The weapon states did agree to sign a ctbt
no later than 1996; to cease producing fissionable material for weapon
purposes and ‘reduce nuclear weapons globally, with the ultimate goal of
eliminating those weapons’. This was the first time weapon states had
accepted the goal of eliminating nuclear weapons, which went beyond
their Article vi obligation to negotiate
in good faith; but there was no time-scale and no targets were set. Nor
was this commitment a treaty obligation: it was not considered by the us Senate and therefore successor us
administrations are not bound by it. The Arab states had threatened to
rebel if Israel did not subscribe to a nuclear-free Middle East, but
were bought off with another non-binding resolution calling on all
states in the region to join the Treaty and put all nuclear facilities
under iaea safeguards.
The
Review Conference in 2000 marked the end of an era. The Clinton
Administration would be gone by the beginning of 2001, and the outgoing
President’s priorities were now an Israel–Palestine settlement and
concluding an agreement with North Korea, after six years of
negotiations: the 1994 Agreed Framework between the two countries had
proposed that North Korea would close its plutonium-producing reactor at
Yongbyon in return for assistance with energy supplies from the us,
Japan and South Korea. But Clinton’s trip was delayed when the Middle
East talks got into difficulties and in the event both sets of
negotiations failed, leaving no time to pursue ctbt
ratification. Then everything changed with George W. Bush and September
11. The new Administration believed neither in treaties nor in nuclear
disarmament.
The 2000 Review Conference did agree on some ‘practical steps’ towards implementing Article vi. Step One urged the signature and ratification of the ctbt.
Step Thirteen proposed further verification capabilities to assure
‘compliance with nuclear disarmament agreements for the achievement and
maintenance of a nuclear-weapon-free world’. These were pious hopes
rather than legal undertakings, as illustrated by Step Seven, which
called for the conclusion of the strategic arms negotiations between
Russia and the us while preserving the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty as ‘a cornerstone of strategic stability’. Bush’s response was to scrap the abm treaty soon after taking office.
Iraq, Iran, Syria
Developments in Iran and Iraq were more
pertinent to the application of the Treaty. From 1988 to 2003, stories
about Iraq being close to possessing a nuclear weapon filled the news.
From 2003 until late in 2007 identical claims appeared about Iran. North
Korea, which now seems to have made peace with the Bush Administration
on the same terms agreed with Clinton over a decade ago, really did test
a nuclear weapon; but no one is particularly worried. The dprk is invulnerable to us attack in any case: Seoul lies within artillery range of the forces north of the border.
Both Iraq and Iran were early npt
signatories. Britain hoped to sell several civil nuclear-power reactors
to the Shah in the early 1970s; France supplied a large research
reactor and ancillary equipment to Iraq. Joining the npt
was thus mandatory and both Iraq and Iran expected it would result in
nuclear-weapon capability. Britain argued that plutonium from its
light-water reactors was not suitable for use in weapons and that iaea
safeguards would in any case be in place; France argued similarly about
the isotope-producing Osirak reactor it had sold to Iraq, which was
particularly unsuited for plutonium production since it used highly
enriched uranium as fuel (only 10 per cent of this was uranium-238,
which is transformed into plutonium-239 inside a reactor). Nevertheless
Israel bombed Osirak in 1981.
Iraq switched to a
clandestine programme of uranium enrichment to produce a weapon.
Progress was slow but when Iraq–Kuwait relations deteriorated in 1990,
Iraq launched a ‘crash programme’ in an attempt to have one nuclear
weapon in stock in case of any counter-attack. The plan was to use the
highly enriched uranium supplied by France and the former Soviet Union
to fuel Iraq’s operating reactors in order to make a bomb. This material
was, of course, safeguarded by the iaea
and under Agency seal. It seems the Soviet fuel was only 80 per cent
U-235 and needed to be further enriched before use. The 1990 crash
programme is the context for the us
statement before the 2003 invasion that Iraq had ‘only been a few months
away’ from the bomb. In terms of Iraq’s own uranium-enrichment
programme, the country was a few years away from weapon status when it
invaded Kuwait. [21] It should be recalled that Saddam Hussein had been fighting Iran as a proxy for the us and uk from 1980–88 and so was considered a friendly power at the time of the invasion. Immediately after the first Gulf War the iaea removed all Iraq’s enriched uranium, together with the calutrons and centrifuges used to produce it.
Iran
suffered an estimated one million casualties during the war with Iraq,
when Saddam used chemical weapons with great effect against both
civilian and military targets. The Iranian nuclear-weapon programme
began in the 1980s, probably as a response to Iraq’s use of these
weapons; Pakistan was willing to exchange old uranium-enrichment
centrifuges and designs for Iran’s oil. The war ended in 1988 but the
enrichment continued, as did the weapon programme, albeit with
diminished urgency. Operating the old centrifuges was hard, but building
new ones was even more difficult. Iran could have withdrawn from the npt,
citing Iraq’s use of chemical weapons against it as the ‘extraordinary
events’ threatening its supreme interests. It did not do so. If it had,
the us would presumably have had another reason to attack. According to the Iran–iaea
safeguards agreements, the Agency should have been informed 180 days
before uranium was introduced into enrichment facilities, while a
nuclear-weapon programme was a breach of Article ii.
In August 2002 at a press conference in Washington, the National
Council of Resistance of Iran group claimed the existence of a secret
nuclear facility at Natanz and produced satellite pictures of it.
The us
invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq changed Iran’s strategic situation
completely. The Taliban regime had been anathema to the Shia clerics
ruling Iran, while Saddam had decimated its young male population for
eight years. Iran was a strong backer of both invasions. The overthrow
of the two regimes allowed Iran to rethink its foreign policy and
nuclear stance. It decided to cooperate with the iaea,
allow access to the enrichment facility at Natanz and reveal details of
its past actions. It sought good relations with its Arab neighbours in
the Gulf and with the eu. Three eu
foreign ministers, Jack Straw, Dominique de Villepin and Joschka
Fischer, flew to Tehran later in 2003 to agree a suspension of Iran’s
enrichment programme, promising in return supplies of enriched uranium,
economic assistance and negotiations on security. Iran was also
persuaded to sign the Additional Protocol, which allowed more intrusive
inspections by the iaea, as a voluntary measure to show goodwill.
Unfortunately no meaningful security guarantees could be offered to Iran without the us,
and negotiations petered out. Furthermore Khatami, who was seen as
favouring good relations with Western countries, was replaced in 2005 by
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. At the beginning of 2006 Iran withdrew its
voluntary adherence to the Additional Protocol and resumed enrichment at
Natanz. Nevertheless, it still adheres to the npt and its original safeguards agreement, under which an iaea
inspector is based at Natanz, along with 24-hour surveillance
equipment. But the pre-2002 introduction of nuclear material into the
centrifuges without 180 days’ notice was a violation of Iran’s
safeguards agreement, as were other failures to account for movement of
nuclear material within Iran. The iaea therefore reported Iran to the un Security Council in March 2006. A test of wills ensued, Iran claiming its enrichment programme was purely civil, the us and eu
saying they were not satisfied that was the case. The Security Council
passed resolutions suspending Iran’s right to enrich uranium, which Iran
ignores on the grounds that it is entitled to enrich under the npt. True, but the Security Council also has the right to suspend Iran under Article 41 of Chapter vii of the un Charter, which allows the unsc
to decide on measures, ‘not involving the use of armed force’, to back
up its decisions where it perceives a threat to peace. At the time of
writing, the situation remains unresolved. But where a matter of law is
at stake—as in this case, since Iran claims the right to enrich uranium
under the npt—Article 36 of the un Charter states that the dispute ‘should as a general rule be referred to the International Court of Justice’.
In December 2007 the us
issued a National Intelligence Estimate stating that Iran had ceased
its weapon programme in 2003. Thus it seems Iran wishes to exercise the
flexibility allowed by the npt to acquire a weapon option, rather than a weapon itself. The situation will not change as long as the iaea inspectors remain in Iran.
Three
months earlier, on 6 September 2007, Israeli aircraft attacked a
building at Al Kibar, in the Dayr az Zawr region of eastern Syria. In
April 2008, us intelligence officials
showed a video and satellite photos of a site in eastern Syria that had
been levelled, together with satellite images from 2005 and 2006 that
depicted a large building under construction. A picture of the interior
and computer-generated diagrams of the outside showed a reactor very
similar to the North Korean one at Yongbyon. The briefing stated that
the reactor had not been fuelled at the time of the raid. [22]
The Syrian authorities had bulldozed the site after the attack. Syria
possesses a small Chinese research reactor, and had been interested in
buying a larger one for many years. In 1998 the Syrians signed an
agreement with Russia for the construction of a nuclear-research centre,
including a 25mw light-water research reactor. American pressure ensured nothing came of this, but the Financial Times
reported in 2003 that Moscow’s Ministry of Atomic Energy had told them
that Syria still wanted the project, and Russia ‘in principle’ could
supply it. Again the us prevented an
agreement. It is thus certainly credible that Syria was trying to build a
reactor. According to the April 2008 briefing, construction had begun
in 2001 and North Korean personnel had been visiting the site since
then.
The Yongbyon device is modelled on the
British Magnox reactors. Calder Hall was the first, opened by the Queen
in 1956 and operated throughout its long life—it closed down in 2003—to
produce plutonium for military use. It is a particularly easy reactor to
build and fuel: neither enrichment facilities nor specialized steel
pressure vessels are required; North Korea was able to build the
Yongbyon reactor without outside help. So, the story makes sense. But
was it a breach of the safeguards agreement? Syria has an obligation to
report the planning and construction of any nuclear facility to the iaea
‘in a timely manner’, which might be taken to mean no later than 180
days before the introduction of fissile material, as is the case with
Iran. But it is impossible to determine when the fuel for the reactor
would have been installed. Indeed there is evidence that North Korea
could not supply fuel for the reactor because all its available fuel was
safeguarded at Yongbyon by both iaea and us government personnel. [23] The iaea
was unhappy about the incident, not only because it received no
notification from Syria about the construction of the reactor, but
because neither Israel nor the United States had informed the Agency
about their intelligence findings prior to the raid.
Israel, India, Pakistan
Israel, India and Pakistan have consistently refused to join the npt
as non-weapon state parties. This is no surprise: all have manufactured
nuclear weapons which are central to their defence strategy. Israel and
India had weapon programmes well before the npt came into force. Israel thought Arab armies could overwhelm it unless it had nuclear weapons—an identical argument to that of nato
in Western Europe during the Cold War. Its weapon programme dates from
1957, when France agreed to supply a nuclear reactor and
fuel-reprocessing facility that could produce plutonium. Built at
Dimona, it went critical in 1962; Israel has thus been accumulating
weapons for 40 years and probably has a comparable number to the uk. [24]
Following
China’s test in 1964, India also decided to start weapons development
in addition to its civil nuclear programme. Canada had provided a
reactor at Trombay in 1954, together with facilities for handling spent
fuel, which India used to extract plutonium. A nuclear explosive device
was tested in 1974, which India announced was for peaceful purposes.
Thus India and Israel have very similar programmes: both depended
initially on a heavy-water reactor and spent-fuel facilities provided by
another state, without iaea safeguards.
The strategic rivalry between India and China, and the border skirmish
in 1962, meant India was bound to react to the Chinese test by
developing a weapon of its own.
Once India had
demonstrated its nuclear capability, it was not surprising that Pakistan
followed suit. Its route, however, was different from Israel’s and
India’s. Instead of extracting plutonium from a reactor’s spent fuel,
Pakistan constructed a uranium-enrichment plant. In the early 1970s
Holland, West Germany and the uk had combined their expertise on building centrifuges for enrichment in a company called urenco,
with sites at Almelo, Gronau and Capenhurst. When A. Q. Khan, a
Pakistani metallurgist working at Almelo, returned home in 1975, he
carried with him a full set of documents and blueprints. A year later he
was appointed by President Bhutto to run the Pakistani enrichment
programme. In 1998 both India and Pakistan carried out nuclear tests.
Yet
three ‘rogue states’—India, Pakistan and Israel—is surprisingly few,
given the large number of countries with nuclear-power programmes. Only
Iraq has diverted iaea-safeguarded
nuclear material for weapon use. Israel’s and India’s acquisition of an
unsafeguarded reactor is unlikely to recur; the us and some eu states rail at Iran for building a new reactor at Arak but that device is safeguarded. While Iran adheres to the npt, it is unlikely that its spent fuel or other irradiated material will be used for weapon purposes, and the iaea inspectorate also provides reassurance that Iran’s enrichment facilities are not used for similar ends.
At
the Review Conference in 2000, the weapon states renewed their
‘unequivocal undertaking’ to achieve ‘the total elimination of their
nuclear arsenals’, under Article vi.
Various steps for unilateral and multilateral reductions in their
strategic and tactical nuclear forces were adopted. In 2002, under the
Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty between the us and Russia, substantial long-term nuclear-arms reductions were agreed. Since then, however, the npt has come under severe strain. The Wall Street Journal noted during the 2005 Review Conference that:
North Korea is in open defiance of the Treaty, Iran is testing its limits, and a Pakistan-based black market has shown how easy it is to end-run the system. Suspicion of the Bush Administration also is high, fuelled by its interest in developing new nuclear weapons and its rejection of, among others, the Comprehensive Test Ban and Anti-Ballistic Missile treaties. [25]
These developments have brought into question the usefulness of the non-proliferation regime based on the npt. The us has withdrawn from the abm
Treaty and the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, signed in 1996, is still
not in force. The 2005 Review Conference failed to agree on measures to
increase the effectiveness of the non-proliferation regime. Negotiations
on a Fissile Material Cut-off Treaty to end the production of highly
enriched uranium and plutonium have stalled. Nuclear weapons continue to
play important roles in the defence postures of each possessor; there
is no sign of them seriously considering a reduction in their arsenals,
let alone negotiations leading to their elimination. Israel, Pakistan
and India remain outside the npt and the us–India agreement on nuclear cooperation, if ratified, threatens to sideline the Treaty.
Furthermore,
the Bush Administration has refused to consider itself bound by its
predecessor’s commitment in 2000 to work towards the elimination of the us
nuclear arsenal. It has continued to request funds from Congress for
the development of new weapons. Robert Joseph, then Under-Secretary of
State for Arms Control and International Security—the principal State
officer for counter-proliferation matters—has said that his ‘starting
point and first conclusion’ in formulating national-security strategy is
the fact that ‘nuclear, biological and chemical weapons are a permanent
feature of the international environment’, while his second conclusion
was that nuclear, biological and chemical weapons ‘have substantial
utility’. [26] Since 2006, however, Democratic control of Congress has blunted some of this pro-nuclear-weapon rhetoric.
v. assessment
The npt
is a discriminatory treaty which gives privileges to the five weapon
states, allowing them to continue to develop their nuclear arsenals
while prohibiting others from doing the same. Clearly that is neither a
stable nor an equitable arrangement. But the npt
was never intended to exist by itself; it was conceived as an early
step towards nuclear-arms control and disarmament. It was (and is) a
non-dissemination treaty, aiming to limit the number of states which
possess nuclear weapons. Through its Preamble and Article vi,
it envisaged other measures, in particular a comprehensive test-ban
treaty and an agreement to cut off supplies of fissionable material for
weapon use. The npt also established
regular reviews, which could serve as opportunities for negotiations on
nuclear disarmament, arms control and general disarmament.
There
has always been a tension between the non-weapon states and the weapon
states where nuclear disarmament is concerned. While the Treaty was
carefully worded to avoid committing any weapon state to particular
measures of nuclear disarmament, or disturbing the nuclear-weapon
arrangements of the parties as of 1968, it was clear from the beginning
of the endc negotiations that this was
untenable. It could hold only if the weapon states made visible progress
on nuclear disarmament and arms control. For the npt
to retain the backing of the majority of states, there have to be
political obligations on the weapon states to achieve something
concrete, beyond the legal obligation of Article vi that they negotiate in good faith. This was clearly set out by un
General Assembly Resolution 2028 of November 1965, which stated that a
future non-proliferation treaty ‘should embody an acceptable balance of
mutual obligations and responsibilities between the nuclear and
non-nuclear powers’. Otherwise, as Judge Shahabuddeen pointed out at the
International Court of Justice in 1996, when the Court issued an
Advisory Opinion on the legality of the use of nuclear weapons in war,
‘the real thrust [of the npt] was not so
much to prevent the spread of a dangerous weapon, as to ensure that
enjoyment of its use was limited to a minority of states’. He added:
‘the difference in perceived objectives is material to the correctness
of the interpretation to be placed on the Treaty’. [27]
To reiterate: the npt did not stand alone; it was the start of a process. The Johnson Administration accepted this. Although the us resisted all attempts to include concrete nuclear-arms control and disarmament measures in the text of the npt, Johnson announced that negotiations with the ussr
on strategic-arms limitation and an anti-ballistic missile treaty would
begin when he sent the Treaty to the Senate. Lord Chalfont, the British
Minister for Disarmament in Harold Wilson’s Labour government, had
stressed the previous year that:
the principle must be accepted and clearly understood that, if a non-proliferation treaty is not followed by serious attempts amongst the nuclear Powers to dismantle some of their own vast nuclear armoury, then the Treaty will not last, however precise its language may be. There is in my mind no doubt that if the non-nuclear Powers are to be asked to sign a binding non-proliferation treaty it must contain the necessary provisions and machinery to ensure that the nuclear Powers too take their proper share of the balance of obligations. [28]
The judges at the International Court of Justice also realized the npt
was part of a process that had made some progress, but which still had
much to do. In the same 1996 Advisory Opinion, Judge Vereshchetin stated
that:
the construction of the solid edifice for the total prohibition on the use of nuclear weapons is not yet complete. This, however, is not because of the lack of building materials, but rather because of the unwillingness and objections of a sizeable number of the builders . . . At the same time, the Court has clearly shown that the edifice . . . is being constructed and a great deal has already been achieved. [29]
The set of issues that U Maung Maung
identified in 1967 are still outstanding, forty years on. The non-weapon
states consider that the weapon-state parties to the npt
are not fulfilling their (political) obligations towards nuclear-arms
control and disarmament—a comprehensive test-ban treaty; an agreement on
the cut-off of all production of fissile materials for weapon purposes
and on their diversion to peaceful use; a halt to production of nuclear
weapons themselves; a verified freeze of the production of nuclear
delivery vehicles; and progressive reduction and final destruction of
all stockpiles of nuclear weapons and carriers. The Director-General of
the iaea, Mohamed ElBaradei, agrees; in 2004 he stated:
We must abandon the unworkable notion that it is morally reprehensible for some countries to pursue weapons of mass destruction yet morally acceptable for others to rely on them for security—and indeed to continue to refine their capacities and postulate plans for their use. [30]
This call to the weapon states to fulfil
their (legal and political) obligations to negotiate reductions in
their nuclear arsenal was reiterated by Kofi Annan just before he left
office.
All of the npt nuclear-weapon states are modernizing their nuclear arsenals or their delivery systems. They should not imagine that this will be accepted as compatible with the npt. Everyone will see it for what it is: a euphemism for nuclear rearmament . . . By clinging to and modernizing their own arsenals, even when there is no obvious threat to their national security that nuclear weapons could deter, nuclear-weapon States encourage others—particularly those that do face real threats in their own region—to regard nuclear weapons as essential, both to their security and to their status. It would be much easier to confront proliferators, if the very existence of nuclear weapons were universally acknowledged as dangerous and ultimately illegitimate. [31]
While the npt was effective during its first thirty years in reducing the spread of nuclear weapons—and Russian–us
cooperation has led to the decommissioning of over half the world’s
nuclear arms—little progress on the core issues of nuclear disarmament
has been made. Neither the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty nor a
Fissionable Material Cut-off Treaty is yet in force, nor are there
treaties to take forward the strategic-arms agreements of previous
years. With a new administration in Washington in 2009, it is possible us policy will revert to reducing the number and importance of nuclear arms. That makes sense from the us
point of view as it is much stronger than any possible rival in
conventional arms, whereas the Soviet Union demonstrated in the 1960s
that it could equal us nuclear firepower; and both Russia and China could do so again in the next twenty years. If the us does return to a more traditional multilateral policy, the npt will be a central plank in the framework governing nuclear trade and global security. If it does not, the npt will join the abm
treaty, the League of Nations and other historical relics; but the
world will be less secure. Those strategists and politicians who worry
about nuclear proliferation should spend less time attacking small
countries: the road to a world with significantly fewer nuclear weapons
passes through Washington, Moscow, Paris, Beijing and London, not
Damascus, Tehran and Pyongyang.
[1] Stephen Kertesz, ed., Nuclear Non-Proliferation in a World of Nuclear Powers, Notre Dame, in 1967.
[2] Kenneth Waltz, ‘The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: More May Be Better’, Adelphi Papers, no. 171 (1981).
[3] Mason Willrich, Non-Proliferation Treaty: Framework for Nuclear Arms Control, Charlottesville, va 1969; Mohamed Ibrahim Shaker, The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty: Origin and Implementation, 3 Vols, Oceana, ny 1980.
[4] Kertesz, Nuclear Non-Proliferation, p. 29.
[5] Final verbatim record of the Conference of the Eighteen Nation Committee on Disarmament, Ann Arbor, mi 2005, pp. 6–7, Meeting 337, 10 October 1967; available online through the University of Michigan Digital Library. Henceforth endc.
[6] endc, 4 August 1966, Meeting 279, p. 5.
[8] Third Nixon–Kennedy Presidential Debate, 13 October 1960; The Times, 17 January 1983.
[9] National Intelligence Estimate Report, ‘Iran: Nuclear Intentions and Capabilities’, November 2007.
[10] Kertesz, Nuclear Non-Proliferation, p. 96.
[11] As noted in a paper on the npt prepared by the us Administration for its allies: see Appendix, p. 67.
[12] The Brown government’s recent decision to
renew Trident raises the question of whether the submarine itself is a
nuclear weapon. Although the term is not defined in the npt, both the us
Atomic Energy Act and the 1967 Treaty of Tlatelolco exclude
nuclear-powered delivery systems, such as the Trident, from their
definitions of a nuclear weapon; so does the ‘us Replies to Questions’ from its nato allies (see box, reproduced at the end of article), unchallenged by other states.
[13] Norman Dombey, ‘The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty’, Arms Control, vol. 5, no. 13, 1984.
[14] ‘Military Implications of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons’, Hearing before the us Senate Armed Services Committee, 91–2, 27 and 28 February 1969, p. 122.
[15] In The Independent Nuclear State, John Simpson gives the Foreign Office version of how the us passed on design information to the uk:
‘The British design concept was then shown to the American
laboratories, who commented on it and suggested ways of modifying it to
create a production warhead similar to the equivalent American one. This
procedure avoided the direct transfer of information on thermonuclear
weapon designs.’ The us account, as minuted at a us–uk
meeting at Albuquerque in September 1958, is much simpler: ‘We provided
the British with blueprints, material specifications, and relevant
theoretical and experimental information related to our xw-47 warhead, Mark 28, 44, 45 and 48 warheads’, as permitted under us law and the us–uk
agreement. When Kennedy arranged to sell Polaris missiles to Britain in
1961, it was much cheaper for the British to get the blueprints and
specifications of the us warhead already designed for the Polaris system (probably the W-58 by then) than to develop a new one themselves. See Simpson, The Independent Nuclear State, London 1983, and for the Albuquerque meeting, Robert Norris, Andrew Burrows and Richard Fieldhouse, Nuclear Weapons Databook, vol. v: ‘British, French and Chinese Nuclear Weapons’, Boulder, co and Oxford 1994, p. 48.
[16] iaea Information Circular 153, p. 28. infcirc 153, incorporating the npt rules, was predated by infcirc 66; infcirc 193 replaces infcirc 153 for eu non-weapon states subject to Euratom safeguards; infcirc 263 deals with the voluntary safeguarding of uk facilities, etc. All Circulars are available from the iaea website.
[17] D. M. Edwards, ‘International Legal Aspects of Safeguards and the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons’, International and Comparative Law Quarterly, vol. 33, no. 1, 1984.
[18] For details see 1998 briefing on ‘Iraqi
Nuclear Weapons’ by the Nuclear Information Project, available on the
Federation of American Scientists website.
[19] Special National Intelligence Estimate,
‘Prospects for Further Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons’, 23 August
1974, available from George Washington University, National Security
Archive.
[20] Michael Quinlan, ‘The future of United Kingdom nuclear weapons: shaping the debate’, International Affairs, vol. 82, no. 4, 2006.
[21] John Chipman, ‘Iraq’s Weapons of Mass Destruction: A Net Assessment’, iiss Strategic Dossier, 9 September 2002.
[22] ‘Background Briefing with Senior us
Officials on Syria’s Covert Nuclear Reactor and North Korea’s
Involvement’, 24 April 2008; available from the Director of National
Intelligence website.
[23] Dombey, ‘At Al Kibar’, London Review of Books, 19 June 2008.
[24] See for example sipri Yearbook 2007: Armaments, Disarmament and International Security, Stockholm 2007.
[25] Carla Anne Robbins, ‘us Faces 2 Fronts at Nuclear Treaty Talks’, Wall Street Journal, 29 April 2005.
[26] Testimony of Robert Joseph, Senate Armed Services Committee, 23 March 1999.
[27] International Court of Justice, Advisory Opinion, 8 July 1996.
[28] endc, Meeting 299, 25 May 1967, pp. 7–8.
[29] International Court of Justice, Advisory Opinion, 8 July 1996.
[30] New York Times, 12 February 2004.
[31] Speech of 28 November 2006, available from the un Department of Public Information website.
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